Report Summary

Period covered: 02 February – 01 March 2025

3 minute read

Note: This report summary is one or two months behind the current month as standard reporting practice. The content is indicative only and incomplete with certain data undisclosed. Become a member to access this data or take out a free 30 day membership trial now.

Food & Grocery Sales

Food & Grocery sales rose xx% year-on-year in February, against xx% growth a year earlier, according to the Retail Economics Retail Sales Index (value, non-seasonally adjusted).

Several factors impacted this performance:

Consumer constraint: Weaker consumer confidence (-xx in February, GfK) kept grocery budgets under pressure. Shoppers remained selective, focusing on essential items and favouring value-led products.

Increased promotions: Retailers ramped up promotions to capture cautious spending, with discounts and own-brand offers making up xx% of total grocery sales, up from xx% a year earlier (NIQ). Member pricing schemes are playing a key role in boosting value perception and retaining footfall.

Valentine’s celebrations: Valentine’s Day lifted grocery sales as many consumers chose at-home celebrations over dining out. Retailers capitalised with premium meal deals, flowers, and gifting ranges.

Food inflation: Food inflation eased slightly to xx% YoY (ONS), but volumes remained flat to slightly negative as consumers bought fewer items this February despite spending more.

Seasonal lines: Mild weather in February saw demand for fresh, lighter meals. Retailers responded with targeted promotions on fresh produce, aligning with health-consciousness.

Multiple sources track UK Food & Grocery sales, each using different methodologies, sample sizes, and reporting periods. Retail Economics provides a consolidated view by aggregating data from key sources, supported by panel insights.

Valentines helps modest growth

February saw modest growth in Food & Grocery sales, but volumes were broadly flat or slightly negative. Early February saw positive retail value sales driven by Valentine's promotions, but overall, the month reflected shoppers prioritising value.

Shopper confidence remains volatile as households brace for higher costs from April, including rising council tax, energy bills, and water rates.

Despite financial pressures, cautious optimism persists as real earnings remain positive, helping ease the squeeze from the £xxbn drop in household spending power during the cost-of-living crisis.

The recovery remains uneven, with affluent households focused on savings, travel, and experiences, while low- and mid-income households still face lingering cost pressures.

Consumers are adopting a ‘trading down to trade up’ mindset, opting for affordable essentials to free up budget for occasional indulgences.

Premium own-label products grew +xx% YoY in February, reflecting strategic choices as shoppers prioritise quality private-label options (Kantar).

Valentine&#xx;s Day provided a temporary boost, with the week leading up to the occasion seeing a +xx% increase in shopper visits and xx% of households making purchases.

Key product categories saw notable uplifts: cut flowers (+xx% to £xxmn), toiletries gift packs (+xx% to £xxmn), fragrances (+1xx% to £xxmn), and fresh ready meals (+xx% to £xxmn).

Marks & Spencer's £xx dine-in-for-two meal deal drove a +xx% sales uplift for the food business during February (NIQ, four weeks to 22 February).

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UK Grocery Market Share (12 weeks to 23 Feb)